Posted on November 30, by Scott Alexander I. If the world was created by the Invisible Hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil?
Posted on February 4, by Scott Alexander Philip Tetlock, author of Superforecastinggot famous by studying prediction. Although this was generally true, he was able to distinguish a small subset of people who were able to do a little better than chance.
Tetlock found that the hedgehogs did worse than the chimp and the foxes did a little better. Cut to the late s. The US intelligence community has just been seriously embarrassed by their disastrous declaration that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.
They set up an Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency to try crazy things and see if any of them worked. IARPA approached a bunch of scientists, handed them a list of important world events that might or might not happen, and told them to create some teams and systems for themselves and compete against each other to see who could predict them the best.
Tetlock was one of these scientists, and his entry into the competition was called the Good Judgment Project. The plan was simple: This worked pretty well. This suggests a discontinuity, a natural division into two groups. Two percent of forecasters were in the top two percent.
Anyway, the Good Judgment Project then put these superforecasters on teams with other superforecasters, averaged out their decisions, slightly increased the final confidence levels to represent the fact that it was 60 separate people, all of whom were that confidentand presented that to IARPA as their final answer.
Having established that this is all pretty neat, Tetlock turns to figuring out how superforecasters are so successful. First of all, is it just luck? Superforecasters one year tended to remain superforecasters the next. The year-to-year correlation in who was most accurate was 0. This is definitely a real thing.
Are superforecasters just really smart? The superforecasters whom Tetlock profiles in his book include a Harvard physics PhD who speaks 6 languages, an assistant math professor at Cornell, a retired IBM programmer data wonk, et cetera.
But the average superforecaster is only at the 80th percentile for IQ — just under And there are a lot of people who are very smart but not very good at predicting.
Are superforecasters just really well-informed about the world? The correlation between well-informedness and accuracy was about the same as the correlation between IQ and accuracy. None of them are remarkable for spending every single moment behind a newspaper, and none of them had as much data available as the CIA analysts with access to top secret information.
Even when they made decisions based on limited information, they still beat other forecasters.
Are superforecasters just really good at math? A lot of them are math PhDs or math professors. The correlation between math skills and accuracy was about the same as all the other correlations. So what are they really good at? Tetlock concludes that the number one most important factor to being a superforecaster is really understanding logic and probability.
Part of it is just understanding the basics.Pearson Prentice Hall and our other respected imprints provide educational materials, technologies, assessments and related services across the secondary curriculum.
ClassZone Book Finder. Follow these simple steps to find online resources for your book. Have no time nor desire to write your college papers?
Apply for essay help at our legit, professional writing service. Have your paper written by the best expert in . ClassZone Book Finder. Follow these simple steps to find online resources for your book.
WRITE MY PAPER FOR ME - WE CARE ABOUT QUALITY OF OUR SERVICE. We promote ourselves as college paper writing service that has earned its popularity by delivering outstanding quality articles.
Writing a book review as part of the work of a college course provides you with the opportunity to interact deeply with a writer's extended statement and to relate it to the subject matter of the course.